A Study Forecasting the GDP of India Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

In this study one of the most prominent macroeconomic indicators is forecasted for a period till 2020 which is none other than Gross Domestic Product. The historical data for India's GDP is collected from the year 1951 and the growth rates are predicted for the same period on yearly basis. An attempt has been made to apply a-theoretic model for forecasting the Indian GDP and its growth rate i.e., ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) and to evaluate the model's accuracy for the same. It was found that the Indian GDP's potential to grow is higher than what is observed due to adverse reactions. The research will be helpful for identifying the India's potential to grow at macroeconomic front.